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What are the chances of a blood test matching 15 of 20 markers?
I quote from the Guardian, regarding the recent evidence in the McCann case:
"He said that while both samples had matched Madeleine's DNA, since they had degraded over time, this was based on an incomplete picture - only 15 of the available 20 genetic markers usually used for such analysis were found: 'Nineteen out of 20 is what we consider conclusive. In this case, they could extract only 15 - but all of the 15 exactly matched Madeleine's DNA.' He also dismissed as 'simply wrong' recent media reports that blood had been found in the car."
My question is, what are the chances of this being the same blood, given that only fifteen of twenty markers were available, but they were good matches?
You seem to have answered your own question. If 19 out of 20 markers are considered conclusive, then 15 out of 20 is not conclusive.
We will need an expert to give the mathematical probability that the blood found is Madeleine's.
Edit: I got my answer from the following quote:
He added (police representative being interviewed) that the results of tests on samples given to the Forensic Science Service in Birmingham revealed the experts were 78.95 per cent sure that blood found in the McCanns’ hire care was Madeleine’s.
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